From Tehran to Tel Aviv: Geopolitics, Fear and Possibility

On Monday evening, Kos & Kaos gathered at Litteraturhuset i Oslo for a timely and unflinching conversation about Iran, Israel, and the shifting balance of power in the Middle East. The room was attentive and engaged as the discussion moved beyond headlines to examine deeper political, historical, and ideological forces shaping the region.

Moderated by Alexander Zlatanos Ibsen, the panel brought together Beni Sabti of the Institute for National Security Studies and Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute (joining via video link). Together they explored Iran’s internal dynamics, the resilience of the Islamic Republic, the limits of foreign intervention, and the uncertain future of regional deterrence.

The conversation moved between personal experience and strategic analysis: from lived memories of revolution and exile to discussions of military doctrine, proxy networks, and the evolving role of the United States. Questions from the audience reflected both concern and urgency — about regime stability, opposition movements, the risks of escalation, and the possibility of long-term regional integration.

Rather than offering easy conclusions, the evening highlighted complexity. Iran’s regime was described as both weakened and deeply entrenched; regional actors as simultaneously cautious and calculating; and the Iranian people as central to any lasting transformation. If there was a common thread, it was this: geopolitical conflict is not only about power and territory, but about legitimacy, identity, and the struggle between repression and self-determination.

It was an evening marked by analytical rigor and honest disagreement — a reminder that serious dialogue remains essential in times of uncertainty.